Just two months in the past that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
